AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven

Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. WTO economists have therefore raised the forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 while lowering the outlook for services trade.