While 640 million tonnes of carbon credits are theoretically eligible for CORSIA Phase 1 compliance, only 47 million tonnes currently meet all requirements due to insufficient host country authorizations. Sylvera reports that $2-5 billion in compliance spending depends on governments issuing Letters of Authorisation, as airlines face mounting pressure to meet 2030 deadlines for aviation climate obligations. The analysis highlights a critical bottleneck in the voluntary carbon market’s ability to serve compliance buyers.