Modeling Expected Goals (xG) from Match Event Data

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric estimating the probability that a shot results in a goal based on location, shot type, and situation; for example, a shot from six yards in open play scores around 0.35 xG while a driven header from 25 yards in a crowded box might score 0.02. The article explains how xG helps teams understand whether match outcomes were deserved, independent of goalkeeper performance or luck, using match event data.