Key Takeaways A prolonged oil-supply disruption is likely to cause inflation to re-accelerate and push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield toward the upper end of our revised 4.5–5.3% year-end range. The Federal Reserve’s new hiking cycle is driven less by domestic demand than by the duration and severity of the oil shock.
Market Pulse: The Fed Hiker’s Guide to Interest Rates
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September 17, 2026
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Dan Suzuki, Sonali Basak and iCapital Investment Strategy Group
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icapital-network