iCapital Market Pulse: Between a Rock and a Hard Strait

Key Takeaways Markets may be entering a new Fed regime, where economic data and Fed speeches matter more than scheduled FOMC meetings as policymakers step back from forward guidance. The path of oil prices may be more important than the July meeting itself, with the outcome of the Iran conflict likely determining whether inflation continues to cool or reaccelerates. Investors should prepare for a wider range of outcomes, as cooling labor markets, elevated energy prices, and shifting Fed communication create greater uncertainty around the policy path.