🏈 Revamping Win Probability for 2025

Imagine this: it’s the fourth quarter, tie game, your team has the ball on the opponent’s 1-yard line with one second left. What are the odds they actually win? That’s the kind of question a win probability model is built to answer and it’s one I’ve been calculating for years. But until now, the system powering those numbers was showing its age. For 2025, I’ve completely overhauled win…