AI and the global economy: implications for central banks

by Iñaki Aldasoro, Leonardo Gambacorta, Enisse Kharroubi, Matthias Rottner The AI boom is driving a large, increasingly debt-financed investment surge and boosting trade and equity markets, generating sizeable terms-of-trade and wealth effects that differ across countries. The productivity payoff from AI, though potentially large, remains uncertain and uneven, across both sectors and countries. By simultaneously affecting demand and supply, AI blurs cyclical signals, complicating central banks’ assessment of underlying economic conditions and monetary policy calibration.