Crypto Volatility Is Compressed While Macro Risk Builds

Inflation reaccelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, with the 10-year at 4.61% (one-year high) and the 30-year at a 90-day high as markets price a Fed hike under newly confirmed Chair Warsh. The Iranian oil shock continues to feed through energy at +17.9% annually and shelter reaccelerating; apparel, airlines, and household goods face another two quarters of tariff pass-through. Inside crypto, BTC and ETH IV sit at the 12th and 1st percentiles, while VRP runs at the 99th and 94t